Paolo Martelli

L'art. 7 alla costituente e il passaggio dalle coalizioni "cielleniste" ai governi "centristi". Un'analisi basata sulla teoria spaziale del voto

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A recently established field of political studies aims at explaining historical events through models drawn from Rational Choice and Game Theory. This blend between history and theory is now generally indicated as "Analytic Narratives", which is the name of an influent book published a few years ago. In this essay the author applies the approach of analytic narratives to the period immediately after World War II when the anti-Fascist parties alliance was superseded by majority governments between the Christian Democratic party and its smaller moderate allies and the Socialist and the Communist parties were excluded from government. The paper maintains that that passage can be analysed through the debates in the constitutional assembly elected in June 1946. It focuses on the question of the relations between the Italian Republic and the Vatican State. The Communist party, contrary to general expectations, voted in favor of the Catholic position that eventually prevailed. The paper makes use of well-known historical documents to plot parties' positions in the political space. Then the author explains the unexpected Communist choice considering its unwillingness to face religious confrontation, and its hope to be accepted as a long-term government partner by the Catholic party. On the basis of the spatial theory of rational voting, the paper shows that both hypotheses are consistent with the preferences of the parties and their view of the political situation. This choice reveals the disregard of the Communist party towards the Socialist and the other left parties, a theoretical finding confirmed by historical research.

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