Serenella Caravella Mirko Menghini

Race against the Machine. The effects of the fourth industrial revolution on the professions and on the labor market

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The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we run a logit model on a dataset of professions identified according to the fifth digit of Istat cp2011 nomenclature in order to estimate their probability of being .substituted. by robots and artificial intelligence. In that, each profession is classified according to three degrees of substitution: low, medium and high. Secondly, by using data provided by the Italian Labor Forces Survey, we exploit the main characteristics of those professions with high risk of technological displacement. Interesting findings emerge from the analysis. On one hand, jobs requiring creative and social skills are less replaceable compared to those that are manly based on routinely mansions. On the other hand, jobs with high probability of being substituted are associated with both lower levels of instruction and age. Such results provide an empirical contribution to the flourishing debate about the quantitative and qualitative occupational effects of technological progress as well as important policy implications.


  • Occupational Choice
  • Technological Change
  • Employment
  • Skill Demand
  • Social Capital
  • Technological Displacement


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