Massimo Baldini, Paolo Onofri

Transizione demografica e mercati finanziari

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In this paper we study some possible consequences of demographic ageing on the Italian economy, in particular the level of per capita consumption compatible with a balanced growth path, the level of saving and the demand for financial assets. First, with a neo-classical growth model accounting we derive the changes in percapita consumption and in the saving rate compatible with the reduction in the stock of capital implied by the shrinking labour force. Then, using the 1989-1998 Surveys on Household Income and Wealth of the Bank of Italy we compare these values with the future paths, induced by the demographic transition, of the household saving rate and the propensity to invest in financial and risky assets.

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