Jeronim Capaldo

The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability

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The macroeconomic effects of free-trade agreements are typically assessed with Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE) assuming full employment and invariant income distribution. Unsurprisingly, these assessments point to positive effects on growth and employment. This paper assesses the effects of the Trans- Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) with a demand-driven econometric model - the United Nations Global Policy Model. Macroeconomic adjustment is driven by competition on labor costs across trading countries while employment and income distribution adapt. Results are starkly different from official assessments with projected losses in terms of GDP, employment and personal incomes. Projections also indicate an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP.

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