Guglielmo Barone, Federica Benni, Cristina Brasili, Sauro Mocetti

The short-term effects of Emilia's earthquake on regional economic growth

  • Abstract

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Keywords: Earthquake; Economic Growth; Difference-in-Differences. JEL classification: R11; Q54.

Between May and June 2012 a series of earthquakes occurred in the Po Valley in Emilia, causing deaths and widespread damages to buildings and manufacturing plants. The negative economic consequences include, beyond direct damages, also indirect costs (e.g. economic loss through production chains with the damaged firms). This paper estimates the overall short-term impact on the GDP growth rate of Emilia-Romagna, the mostly affected region. Using a difference-in-differences approach and a coincident indicator of monthly economic cycle, we estimate a 0.2 percentage points reduction of economic growth rate.

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