Paolo Foradori

Non-state actors and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction: The case of nuclear terrorism

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Abstract

This article analyzes the phenomenon of nuclear terrorism, i.e. the scenario of a non-state organization carrying out a catastrophic attack involving nuclear weapons. In the first part, the article discusses the growing importance of non-state actors in global politics and particularly in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It then examines the motivations, objectives, strategies and tactics of action of a possible nuclear-armed terrorist organization. In the third part, it explores the possible strategies to counter this threat, highlighting the difficulties of applying the traditional analytical categories and strategies of deterrence developed during the Cold War to the fight against non-state actors. The article concludes by arguing that the threat of nuclear terrorism is plausible but should not be overestimated. Indeed, there remain many technical and operational hurdles, opportunity costs, forms of self-restraint and deterrence which can discourage even the most heinous, radical and organized terrorist group from breaking the «nuclear taboo» that has existed since 1945.

Keywords

  • terrorism
  • weapons of mass destruction
  • nuclear weapons
  • proliferation
  • Al Qaeda

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